Battlefield 6 has already sold over 600 K copies on Steam (and has 2.7M wishlists!)
We’ve got a chunky Battlefield 6 deep dive this week. Plus, an analysis of last week’s top Steam games by copies sold and a look at Alinea’s margin-of-error data 🎯
Battlefield 6 is a much-needed return to form for the franchise
With 2.7 million wishlists and pre-order revenues of $35 million on Steam alone, Battlefield 6’s pre-release Steam metrics have blown through the roof, which is something you can literally do in the game too (sorry).
These early success signals are well timed, as the Battlefield IP has been struggling. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The franchise was once an FPS juggernaut – one of the best. But over the years the BF IP has fallen from grace, thanks to poorly received releases like Battlefield 2042 and Battlefield 5.
However, Battlefield’s community has stayed active, despite being much negative sentiment around the direction of recent BF games. Battlefield has had huge franchise cache and revenue-generating power. And EA always knew it.
Amid the … tepid launch of Battlefield 2042 back in 2021, EA put the franchise under the stewardship of Vince Zampella, a legend in the shooter world. Zampella is the FPS maestro who:
Heralded Call of Duty’s glory days, including the original Modern Warfare game, whose influence changed the entire FPS genre
Oversaw Titanfall 2, which is the best campaign of all time according to many folks (myself included)
Led Apex Legends, one of the few non-Fortnite, non-PUBG battle royale games to stand the test of time, Apex Legends.
In other words, Zampella is a legend, so there has been a lot of cautious optimism around Battlefield 6 (his first BF game).
Needless to say, there’s a lot riding on this one for EA, as the FC (formally FIFA) game franchise faltered slightly revenue-wise this year for the first time.
Our data shows that things are trending well for Zampella and his team:
Our Steam estimates show that Battlefield 6 – despite not launching until October 10 – has already pulled in 605 K Steam preorders.
This amounts to revenues of around $35 million on Steam alone. Battlefield 6 was even last week’s #2 Steam game by revenues and #3 game by copies sold (more on that later).
The jury is still out of course, but so far, so good.
On a personal note, I spent the entire weekend playing the beta. It’s awesome. If it sticks the landing, it’s going to be on my GOTY list for sure.
The marketing department also executed its strategy well, having a huge influence on Battlefield 6’s early success signals.
Battlefield’s wishlists have shot through the roof
Zampella’s involvement, and early interviews name-dropping Battlefield 3 and 4 (two of the franchise’s greats), meant that hype for Battlefield 6 was higher than usual out of the gate.
So when the game’s page was added to Steam in late July, wishlist numbers shot past the 500K mark in just a few days:
Yet, as you can see above, Battlefield 6’s wishlists have since blown up to 2.7 million following an excellent beta and a marketing campaign that ticked all the right boxes for fans.
From July 25 to July 30, Battlefield 6 was already building momentum, adding ~95K to 150K wishlists per day on average. This is strong for a AAA title pre-hype cycle, but not unprecedented.
Then, two critical events spiked Battlefield 6’s wishlists:
The multiplayer trailer dropped on July 31, leading to an immediate wishlist spike from ~754K to 1.23M (+62% in one day)
The first beta weekend kicked off on August 7, resulting in another spike from ~2.20M to 2.44M in just 24 hours
Post-trailer, EA continued its marketing assault with a blast of trailers and hype videos on its socials, an expensive preview event for influencers, and press interviews galore.
Wishlist growth continued at ~300K/day until the beta weekend (Aug 7), which drove a new engagement high.
Unlike many betas where interest peaks then drops sharply, Battlefield 6 maintained positive momentum through Aug 11.
Battlefield 6 has another beta happening this weekend, and that beta’s performance will be a strong indicator of the game’s success going forward.
We’ll give you data update on that in next week’s newsletter, so hit subscribe below (for free) if you want that analysis in your inbox as soon as it’s ready.
Is Battlefield 6 going to be a CoD killer?
‘’Battlefield will boot stomp CoD this year,’’ said former Blizzard president Mike Ybarra on X last week.
Chill out, son.
Yes, Battlefield 6 brings all the things fans love about the series back: sprawling maps back-to-basics classes, and destructibility. And yes, it also borrows many of the right features from Call of Duty, and in some cases improves on them.
Infantry-friendly lanes and terrain breaks keep players in meaningful firefights rather than trading shots across barren fields, and there’s also infantry-only CoD-like smaller-scale modes to ease the CoD heads over.
This is crucial, as over 60% of the beta wishlisters have played a CoD game via Steam’s Call of Duty HQ launchable (including free-to-play mode Warzone).
Simply put, Battlefield 6 retains that large-scale feel of Battlefield but prioritizes playability – a balance BF2042 failed to strike.
But while Battlefield 6 has the potential to perform better than any Battlefield game ever has – financially and critically – it almost certainly won’t outsell Call of Duty.
Call of Duty is entering something of a stagnation phase right now in industry circles. Sure. And releasing a direct sequel to Black Ops for the third year in a row is certainly a choice.
CoD has also been the butt of many jokes (including from yours truly) regarding its Fortnite-like crossovers – including Beavis and Butthead and Nikki Minaj (!?)
But CoD is still dominant despite all this. Its core audience still loves the game and buys it every damn year. And that isn’t going to change just because Battlefield 6 is rad and tracking incredibly well.
For many gamers, Call of Duty is an annual ritual. Tens of millions of players, many of them casual gamers, buy the newest CoD every year without hesitation. This “autopilot purchasing” habit is decades deep, and breaking it requires more than one awesome Battlefield release.
Even if Battlefield 6 wins over the hardcore FPS crowd – and it looks like it very much will – the sheer volume of CoD’s day-one casual buyers is always something to behold.
CoD’s muscle memory in the market is so strong that players will buy it even if they complain about it. And while Battlefield’s battle royale mode could be a hit, Warzone is still an active funnel feeding players into the CoD ecosystem.
Even if Warzone engagement is down, its massive install base means Black Ops 7 will get free advertising just by existing inside Warzone menus and seasonal events.
Battlefield simply doesn’t have that scale of cross-promotion.
CoD’s seasonal model is also a relentless content treadmill: new operators, skins, battle passes, and other buzzwords every few weeks. This constant churn keeps it in social feeds, Twitch streams, and YouTube recommendations year-round.
The jury is still out on whether Battlefield can keep up with that kind of cadence.
The “this is the Battlefield that will beat CoD” conversation is nothing new. We saw it with BF3, BF4, BF1, and the pre-launch hype of BF2042. Each time, Battlefield gained attention and sold well but never outsold CoD globally.
The reality is that CoD’s sales floor is higher than Battlefield’s sales ceiling so far, for the year anyway. Battlefield 5 is obviously a longer-term thing and not a yearly release.
Still, even in Battlefield’s highest highs (BF1 in 2016), Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare – a widely disliked entry – still outsold it by millions of copies. That’s brand inertia at work. And that’s why Battlefield 6 won’t ‘’boot stomp CoD’’ – this year, at least.
Last week was another eventful one on Steam, with indies, AA, DLC, and yes, Battlefield 5
Battlefield aside, indies ruled the copies sold ranking for week 33 (August 3 to 10):
Mage Arena (#1) sold 624 K copies last week, bringing its total copies sold to 1.8 million. The voice-controlled spell-casting PvP game is continuing to land with games, thanks to its viral gameplay and cheap price point. We flagged this one as one to watch back in July, when it had only sold 119 K copies. We even interviewed the game’s creator. Read that here
PEAK (#2) ascended to 551 K copies sold last week, helping it shoot past 8 million sold. The budget co-op climbing game got a 38% price cut from $8 to $4.95 yesterday, so expect it to chart well again next week
Battlefield 5 (#3) sold 361 K copies last week thanks to its fantastically received beta, but we’ve already covered that to death above
Titan Quest 2 (#4) launched in early access on August 1 and sold 204 K copies on Steam alone last week. It’s continued to sell well, now at 465 K on Steam. It was also the #5 game by revenues on Steam, with $4.1 million. Overall revenues have since ballooned to almost $10 million. Titan Quest 2 is an ARPG and comes and comes two decades after the original. China is its biggest market on Steam (27% of its players). The title was originally greenlit back at THQ years ago, but it was axed due the marketing team. Whoops
Castle Crashers’ Painter Boss Paradise DLC (#5) sold 190 K copies last week, in other game-revival news. It marks Castle Crashers’ first DLC in over a decade, and clearly fans are chuffed. It has since crossed 200 K copies sold, netting about $600 K in revenue due to its under-$3 price point
Yes we have DLC data! Want a demo and trial of our platform? Reach out here, and it’s yours!
Here’s our latest margin-of-error data
As Alinea Insight subscribers, you’re aware that we’re not afraid to post our estimates publicly and show people our platform with free trials. But we’re also not afraid to publish our margin-of-error data.
Market intelligence helps businesses make informed, high-stakes decisions, and avoid costly mistakes. But inaccurate data means badly informed decisions.
Some companies don’t even publicly post their data! Could you imagine!?💚
Anyway, decision-makers need to fully understand the accuracy of the data they rely on. We reckon the only real way to do this is via accuracy tests that reflect results from the estimation model itself. And no, not from data that’s manually adjusted to reflect public milestones…
We just completed our latest accuracy test based on 754 publicly reported Steam and/or PC-only milestones, which you can see below:
Our recent 10% median margin-of-error on pure Steam and/or PC datapoints shows why our clients trust our tool. They can confidently support their games, forecast, benchmark, and hone their business strategy – all grounded in reliable data. 🎯
Our expert data science team’s precision continues to impress, and it blows my (Rhys) mind daily.
With this in mind, we’ll never be complacent and coast on brand. 💚 Our goal is to ensure that our estimation framework remains consistent and reliable, regardless of external updates from publishers.
Most publishers never disclose their sales and player numbers, so estimate models MUST be independent of the few public announcements we do get.
At the end of the day, transparency is one of our core values, and it’s why so many publishers are switching to Alinea.
This transparency is why – in addition to our estimates – we also provide one of the most comprehensive public milestone databases in the industry. Our platform has over 25,000 curated public announcement entries, each with full source traceability.
This gives clients a rigorous, reliable estimation framework AND a rich curated milestone database, supporting informed decisions at every step. It’s the best of both worlds, and the most accurate, transparent Steam and console data on the market.
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The last word
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