China drove Nioh 3’s promising start
We dive into our Steam and PlayStation estimates for Nioh 3, before looking at some promising early Mewgenics metrics.
The Nioh series has been a sleeper hit in the souls-like genre. Alongside Lies of P, it’s one of the few franchises that approaches the quality of FromSoftware’s games.
Nioh is no copycat, though, having carved its own unique identity around random loot, stances, and Team NINJA’s speciality: fast-as-hell combat.
Nioh 3 abandons the linear structure of the previous two games to focus on more of an open world and exploration, following in the footsteps of the Dark Souls-to-Elden Ring trajectory. Nioh 3 is off to a nice start:
Despite being out for under a week, Nioh 3 had sold through over 700K copies across PlayStation and Steam as of February 10 (four days after launch). That’s over $50M in gross revenue. And we’re not including unsold retail copies in these numbers.
In terms of the platform split, Steam leads with 395K sold through (56.1%) versus 309K on PS5 (43.9%):
Clearly, the choice to launch Nioh 3 on PC simultaneously (a first for the franchise) was a good one.
China leads the charge for Nioh 3, while more Nioh 3 players played Elden Ring than Nioh 2
In terms of market share, China is the top country for the Nioh franchise, now accounting for 48.7% of the total player base across Steam and PlayStation.
While the series has historically maintained a strong presence in the region on Steam, Nioh 3 peaked in China engagement across the board.
This success is the result of a deliberate, localised marketing push by Team NINJA, headlined by producer Kohei Shibata’s appearance at ChinaJoy 2025.
In fact, East Asia accounts for almost two-thirds of Nioh 3’s audience (including China, Japan, and Taiwan). Nioh 3 blends deep Shinto and Buddhist philosophies with an authentic dark fantasy retelling of Japan’s Bakumatsu period, grounding its supernatural elements in shared regional history.
Nioh 3 has drawn more heavily from the broader souls-like audience than from its own direct predecessor. While loyalty remains high, with 66.6% of Steam players and 69.0% of PlayStation players having played Nioh 2, it is no longer the primary source of the audience.
On Steam, an incredible 80.7% of Nioh 3 players previously played Elden Ring, suggesting that Elden Ring has indeed lifted the souls-like barrier for many players. And of course, Nioh 3 has also successfully positioned itself as the “next big challenge” for the massive FromSoftware audience (🙋).
The Wukong effect is clearly visible too, with 71.3% of the Steam audience having played Black Myth: Wukong, again emphasising the huge Chinese audience for Nioh 3.
On PlayStation, the trend holds steady, with Elden Ring crossover (73%) still outpacing Nioh 2’s audience (69%) despite Nioh 2 having been on PlayStation Plus.
Demand for soulslikes remains strong and continues to find success. The jury is still out, though. And pricing strategy will be a huge part of Nioh 3’s ongoing performance. On that note…
Converting those wishlisters and navigating launch pains
While China leads in total buyers, the distribution of Nioh 3’s 800K Steam wishlists reveals a massive untapped global demand that may be being stifled by pricing strategy.
On Steam, the U.S. and China are actually neck-and-neck, accounting for 24% of wishlists each. Meanwhile, wishlist shares in emerging markets are significantly higher than usual (and certainly above the player shares). Brazil is currently Nioh 3’s #3 market by wishlisters, with Argentina, Poland, and Russia all making the top 10.
Yet, there’s some friction here, as Team NINJA seems to have used Steam Valve’s recommended prices for foreign currencies, which haven’t been updated in ages. This is creating a significant barrier to entry in many markets, including in:
Poland: The game is the 3rd most expensive in the world relative to currency value, priced at over 20% more than a direct USD conversion. Shouts out to the people over at PolishOurPrices, who are working to move the needle here.
Brazil: The Deluxe Edition of Nioh 3 currently costs almost half of the local monthly minimum wage, a pricing tier that effectively locks out the core audience in its #3 interest market…
Europe: Even in mature markets like Europe, the standard price point of €80 (approx. $95 USD) is drawing criticism.
While the higher prices here are resulting in more revenues per player, they effectively lock out an engaged audience and may be leaving money on the table. This pricing friction is directly reflected in the conversion data, too:
As you can see above, 133K Steam users wishlisted Nioh 3 in January 2026, mostly thanks to a huge spike spanning from the Nioh 3 demo drop at the end of the month. Over 376K Steam users played the demo. Of those, 23% converted to buyers.
The screenshot also shows that of the 133K Steam users who wishlisted Nioh 3 in January 2026, 5.22% have converted to buyers so far.
The conversion is lower for other months, with the average conversion sitting at around 3% since launch. The vast majority of the remaining 800K wishlisters are waiting out the current price for steeper drops.
For players in the overpriced regions, the Nioh 3 remains a high-intent item that is currently unattainable, likely shifting the sales tail toward future deep-discount periods.
Despite this, Nioh 3 has still launched well and is landing with fans. We’ll be checking in on this one again in next week’s newsletter to see how it’s faring.
Speaking of hits…
Mewgenics has already made back its budget and passed 250K sold
Mewgenics hasn’t left the Steam top-seller list (or my brain) since its launch yesterday. It was developed by Edmund McMillen (Super Meat Boy, The Binding of Isaac) and Tyler Glaiel (Aether, The End is Nigh, also together with McMillen)
After a protracted 13-year development cycle and a period of total cancellation, the project has successfully emerged from development hell to become the first major indie hit of 2026:
Mewgenics peaked at 66K concurrent players on Steam.
It shifted over 250K copies in under 12 hours.
It recouped its entire dev budget in three hours.
Mewgenics is essentially a complex roguelike that merges grid-based tactical combat with a deep genetic life simulation. You’ve got to manage a clowder of felines, breeding them to pass down mutations and specialised classes before sending their offspring into brutal procedural battles.
As you can see, McMillen and Glaiel have really leaned into a grotesque and irreverent aesthetic. They’ve also provided a staggering amount of content – including over 1,000 abilities and a 200-hour campaign. The result is a high-stakes dopamine loop that feels both nostalgic and fresh.
Like many modern indie hits, Mewgenics has successfully combined two established game types, pairing a deeply tactical experience with a complex management sim, where players have to track kitty bloodlines and genetic traits to survive. But the game is a lot more than that, which we’ll cover in more detail next week.
It sounds unhinged (it is), but it works. McMillen and Glaiel’s unwillingness to compromise on complexity or simplify the strategy for a broader audience has turned this into a legitimate GOTY contender for many.
On launch day, our estimates show that Mewgenics boasted over 500K wishlists. Around 78% of these users were previous players of The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth.
But Mewgenics is selling quicker:
“I think the highest sales day for any game of mine, release-wise, was [The Binding of Isaac:] Rebirth,’’ said McMillen to our friends at IGN. ‘’And it sold 40,000 units I think day one.”
Mewgenics beat that record by more 6x. That’s the culmination of years of brand building and anticipation. It doesn’t hurt that the game is amazing, too. I loaded up Mewgenics at around 7PM last night to get a quick hour in to get a taste of the game.
I was up until past 1 am – and yes, I already made a spreadsheet to try to breed the best cats possible…
The early success is deserved and is the result of a perfect storm that combined over a decade of community anticipation with a mechanically dense loop that has no direct equivalent in the market. And it nails that moreish rogue-lite loop.
We’ll be back next week with more Mewgenics data – including copies sold, revenues, DAUs, wishlist conversion, and more, so hit subscribe below to get that in your inbox as soon as it’s ready.
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