Deadlock is Steam’s most wishlisted upcoming multiplayer game
Zooming in on our wishlist data for Deadlock, before looking at some benchmarks for Alinea estimates (our numbers vs. October’s publisher announcements).
Battlefield 6, which had a whopping 3.5M wishlists going into launch, is finally out.
We covered its launch in Tuesday’s newsletter, when we estimated that BF6 sold 6.5+ million copies on Steam, Xbox, and PS5 in three days.
Today, EA announced the game sold 7 million copies across all platforms, including the EA App, in three days. There’ve been four other notable publisher-published numbers this month, so we’ll show you how we fared there too (at the end of the newsletter).
But yes, Battlefield is SMASHING it. Yet a different shooter has had way more wishlists than BF6 all this time.
Deadlock is easily the most wishlisted upcoming multiplayer Steam game
Valve’s upcoming MOBA-like hero shooter, Deadlock, has been sitting on over 5.5M wishlists, with barely any marketing. Deadlock is easily the #1 upcoming multiplayer game on Steam by wishlists.
Deadlock has more than double the wishlisters of Steam’s next-most-wishlisted multiplayer game, ARC Raiders (2.8M wishlists).
Battlefield 6 launched with fewer than 3.6 M wishlists on Steam, and that sold 4M copies in less than a week on Valve’s platform.
All signals point to Deadlock being free to play, where wishlister-to-buyer ratios are A LOT higher than premium games like Battlefield and ARC. The fact that Deadlock comes from Valve gives it even more advantages:
Maximum Steam store visibility: we’re expecting banners galore – all the bells and whistles.
Prominent placement across events and cross-promotion with other big Valve games (Dota 2, CS2).
Steam Deck compatibility, which is missing for MANY shooters, due to anti-cheat measures. The install base of portable PC players is a small but growing audience.
When is Deadlock out? And how’s it play?
Interestingly, Deadlock’s early build has already been playable and public for over a year now (you can get an invite from a friend who has access). The full release is TBA, but I reckon it’s soon.
Built as a 6v6 hero brawler layered on top of a MOBA-style lane system, Deadlock’s tone is more Team Fortress 2 than Apex Legends – in terms of tone, gameplay, and visuals.
Floaty mobility, attrition gunfights, and improvisation also matter far more than the mechanical precision of a CS2 or Valorant.
It’s designed to be chaotically welcoming and to welcome chaos: melee parries, souls-for-upgrades economies, NPC-assisted boss pushes, and heroes who can literally finger-gun foes to death.
Deadlock is streamer-friendly, leans into co-op PvE gameplay that’s hot right now, and the first-time user experience is getting bloody good.
Deadlock is still winning over new would-be players
Deadlock’s appeal was obvious when I briefly jumped in last year – it’s a cooperative power fantasy that rewards tempo and territorial flow rather than perfect shots. It’s a little more forgiving than the usual sweaty shooters.
However, the on-ramp for new users still required A LOT of improvement. Makes sense; it’s an early build.
I checked out Deadlock again recently. I’m happy to say it’s now less of a fascinating prototype and more of an actual live game with direction.
More players are still finding and wishlisting Deadlock despite its lack of marketing. Over 1.2 million people wishlisted Deadlock in the past three months alone, despite minimal marketing from Valve:
A global hit, when Valve is ready
Valve has spent the last several months overhauling every layer of friction that overwhelmed me a bit last time around:
A dramatic lane redesign increased hero proximity and boosted early aggression.
The shop and item system was rebuilt for speed, cutting down on downtime and onboarding complexity.
A full hub overhaul will let players freely test abilities, browse match replays from a virtual cinema, or tinker with builds in a cosy combat playground.
Simply put, Deadlock feels like it’s almost ready, and when Valve finally lifts the curtain, the shooter scene on Steam – which is largely zero-sum – could be in for a shake-up.
Crazy stat: almost 8% of Marvel Rivals’ Steam players (that’s over 2M of them) have gone out of their way to wishlist Deadlock. Marvel Rivals stole a lot of players from Overwatch, and now Deadlock is on track to hoover up some of Marvel Rivals’.
There are only so many shooter players to go around. That said, Deadlock seems to be piquing the interest of players floating between shooter franchises, and across loads of audiences to boot:
18% of its wishlisters are in the US
10% are in Russia
9% are in China
8% are in Brazil
In terms of the continents:
39% are in Asia
35% in the Americas
And 24% are in Europe
That’s a pretty even split, as far as wishlist data goes. Based on the early build, older PCs will be able to handle this one no problem. Expect high penetration from price-sensitive gamers and markets, too.
We’ll be keeping an eye on this one, so hit subscribe below to get our estimates as soon as they’re ready.
Comparing Alinea’s estimates to October’s biggest publicly announced milestones
Actuals are few and far between, but luckily, there have been five BIG publisher announcements so far in October.
We pride ourselves on our accuracy and transparency. Here’s how Alinea Analytics estimates stacked up, with receipts (screenshots from our platform – see the publisher-announced actuals on the dotted line).
Battlefield 6: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
EA announcement: 7M+ (link)
Alinea estimate: 6,606,257
Difference: -6.0% (but our estimates don’t cover the EA App)
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
Sandfall announcement: 5M (link)
Alinea estimate: 4,856,948
Difference: -2.9%
Skate: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
EA announcement: 15M+ players (link)
Alinea estimate: 16,084,250
Difference: +7.2%
CloverPit: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
Panik announcement: 750K (link)
Alinea estimate: 736,723
Difference: -1.8%
Megabonk: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
vedinad announcement: 1M (link)
Alinea estimate: 909,746
Difference: -9.0%
As you can see, Megabonk is nearing 2M sold on Steam, as per our estimates. It’ll pass that tomorrow or over the weekend.
Megabonk is great, by the way – so it’s well worth playing if you’re into roguelikes/arcade games.
I played it a bit too much last week, so beware: it’s bloody addictive:
Want to get your hands on our data for yourself?
As we mentioned, we’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Just reach out here, or reply to this email, and we’ll set you up.
Cool links
A huge thanks to the following outlets for covering our Battlefield 6 newsletter from earlier this week:
GamesIndustryBiz: https://www.gamesindustry.biz/battlefield-6-sells-over-7m-units-across-pc-and-console-in-five-days,
TWIV (SkillUp’s website): https://thisweekinvideogames.com/news/battlefield-6-alinea-analytics-steam-pre-order-sales-data/,
Insider Gaming: https://insider-gaming.com/battlefield-6-has-reportedly-sold-over-6-5-million-copies-in-first-week/,
wccftech: https://wccftech.com/battlefield-6-smash-hit-more-6-5-million-units-sold/
For the whole team at Alinea, it feels great to see the company grow into gaming’s most quoted analytics firm in such a short period of time, so thank you all.
The last word
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[Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]