Forza Horizon 6 has pre-sold 500K on Steam a month before launch
Forza Horizon 6 pre-launch metrics point to an even better launch than its predecessor. We analyse our early estimates for Forza Horizon 6 and look back at Forza Horizon 5’s cross-platform legacy.
Next month’s Forza Horizon 6 is easily the most anticipated entry in the series’ history. There’s a few reasons for that:
It’s set in Japan, which fans have been begging for since the Xbox 360 days.
The gap between Forza Horizon 5 and 6 is the longest in the subseries’ history, so pent-up demand is through the sunroof.
Horizon 6 is also the first title in the franchise developed exclusively for the Xbox Series generation of consoles, letting the team squeeze even more juice out of the Forza Tech engine
The Forza Horizon brand is larger and more relevant than it’s ever been – and across more platforms and regions.
If Playground Games sticks the landing, we’re looking at a new bar for the racing genre (not including Mario Kart...) Based on the glowing previews and the pre-launch estimates in our platform, Playground is well on its way to that podium spot.
Forza Horizon 6’s pre-launch Steam surge: 500K and counting
Our estimates show that Forza Horizon 6 has already raced past 500K copies on Steam over a month before launch.
Taking regional pricing and different editions into consideration, Forza Horizon 6 is nearing $30M on Steam. It’s already the best-selling Forza title on Steam pre-launch, with a whole month to go.
Based on comparisons to other known quantities and major sequels, pre-sales this high point to Horizon 6 clearing 2M units on Steam within its first 24 hours.
Horizon 6 still has another four weeks of marketing momentum to capitalise on. And based on how receptive buyers and prospects have been to the marketing so far, we expect the hype and number to continue ticking up.
Forza Horizon 6 marketing is converting to copies sold on Steam
Horizon 6’s Steam daily copies-sold delta spiked significantly following the map reveal, the preview media embargo lifting, and the initial drive gameplay on April 8.
This inertia continued through to its biggest spike, when Playground announced the achievement list on April 13. The reveal went down well with the community. For one, it ditches the frustrating Eliminator battle royale requirements from the last game.
Players were also chuffed that the path to 100% completion seems more solo-friendly, less reliant on unpredictable online matches, and with a big emphasis on exploration.
Beyond that, the list had fans hyped for the return of Wristbands and the introduction of Japan-specific content. Forza Horizon 6 sold 22K Steam copies on April 13 alone – the highest since the 50K buyers on the day it became purchasable.
We’re seeing a remarkably similar pattern in our wishlist data, with 90K new wishlists added on the day of the achievement drop. Currently, Forza Horizon 6 has amassed over 3.3M wishlists on Steam alone.
The crown jewel of the non-M&A Xbox portfolio
When the main demographic of this newsletter thinks of Xbox’s biggest internally made franchises, Halo and Gears are usually some of the first to come to mind.
But we old. Via all those major Microsoft acquisitions, games like Minecraft and Call of Duty easily eclipse those in terms of raw numbers. As will the next Elder Scrolls.
But when looking at Xbox’s internally nurtured IP, the ones Microsoft didn’t scoop up via M&A, Forza Horizon is the true crown jewel – and across platforms.
The previous edition, 2021’s Forza Horizon 5, is closing in on 54M players overall. Our data shows a distinct split in how these players access the game:
Over 74% of these players come from the Xbox ecosystem, mostly driven by its day-one inclusion in Game Pass.
About 15% of the player base comes from Steam, representing the premium PC buyer – as well as discount buyers over time.
11% comes from the PS5 port, which only launched a year ago.
The success of the PS5 port, despite releasing 3.5 years after the original launch, is a huge data point here, and one that is probably a hot topic of discussion in Xbox’s war room.
Forza Horizon 5 has actually made more money via base copies on PS5 than Steam despite selling fewer copies. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is higher on PS5, due to regional pricing, and a higher share of the PS5 audience in high-price mature markets (relative to Steam).
New setting, new markets, and a bigger fandom
The US remains Forza’s biggest country across platforms. But changing market dynamics since the launch of Forza Horizon 5 have given its imminent sequel a much bigger launch total addressable market at launch.
China is currently the older Forza Horizon 5’s #2 country by Steam players, sitting only slightly behind the US. China has a massive appetite for Japanese car culture, and with China’s Steam community growing exponentially over the last five years, Forza Horizon 6 is on track to do gangbusters in the Chinese market.
China is currently Horizon 6’s #2 market by wishlisters. Currently, about 6% of Steam wishlists are coming from Japan, which is a figure far higher than any previous entry in the series. While PC gaming has grown rapidly in Japan since the pandemic, the real prize for racing games in that market remains the console space.
Obviously, the Japanese setting is a massive deal for gamers and racing fans in Japan itself (I know I was chuffed when they did Britain). Another wrinkle is that Japanese Domestic Market (JDM) car culture is bloody massive globally. Fans have been dying for this setting for over a decade.
As Xbox is essentially a non-factor in the Japanese hardware market, and with no Switch 2 version currently announced, the PS5 edition of Forza Horizon 6 is the only viable path to monetise the Japanese console audience. This is a game set in their market, after all.
And as shown by some commendable previous attempts, Xbox hasn’t really been able to move the needle in Japan, hardware-wise.
Anyway, unlike the 3.5-year delay we saw with the Forza Horizon 5 port, Xbox has said the sequel will arrive on PS5 later this year.
On Xbox and console exclusives
This shift in strategy has massive implications for the day-one conversation. If PlayStation players know a port is coming within the same calendar year, the FOMO is far more effective. For Japanese players, this will be the first time a flagship Forza title feels truly accessible on their platform of choice.
While the novelty of Horizon 5 landing on PS5 just last year might have a small impact on launch conversion, the combination of the Japan setting, the proximity to the primary marketing cycle, and the sheer number of casual gamers on PlayStation means the PS5 version of Forza Horizon 6 will be pivotal.
Xbox is having some fierce conversations about exclusivity right now, as per recent comments from reporter and Xbox insider Jez Corden. The question for Xbox’s new leadership is whether to fully embrace a platform-agnostic future or return to exclusivity. It’s a tough question with no easy answer.
To me, Xbox is clearly in the middle of a transition away from console and to PC. It’s a managed migration. Its next console is a half-step towards PC, an offramp for Xbox’s console fans and their libraries.
As Phil Spencer said in the past, Xbox lost the wrong generation. Game Pass was an attempt to turn the tide there, and it didn’t work. So PC
And it’s nigh impossible to go back and win on console. PlayStation’s inertia is just too strong at this point. Xbox’s future is on PC. Now it’s about managing expectations, keeping profitability up, and moving its core base to PC with it.
It won’t want to stifle too many cash cows on the way.
So one way forward is for Xbox to treat a selection of titles as multiplatform. I’d choose Call of Duty, Minecraft, Forza, and Elder Scrolls as a multiplatform big four. These titles would live on every screen possible – including PS5 – to maximise revenues during the initial hype cycle and keep the books looking good for Microsoft.
Keeping more niche or hardcore franchises off PlayStation in the lead-up to Xbox’s console/PC hybrid will help Microsoft keep its high-spending obsessives while transitioning the broader ecosystem toward PC and cloud.
While there is plenty of chatter about Xbox going fully exclusive again, especially amid recent comments from Sharma and rumours of PlayStation retreating from PC, I don’t see it happening.
Shifting back to an all-exclusive model would impact profit at a time when Microsoft is bleeding money via generative AI, after all. When the going gets tough, the console war will be the least of Xbox’s problems. It’ll be an ATM in the AI war instead.
As for Forza Horizon 6, with the PS5 port later this year, Microsoft is choosing to liquidate its exclusivity for immediate, high-velocity cash flow.
Forza Horizon 6 launch sales performance on Steam and Xbox at launch will be a huge signal for Sharma and her strategists, as well the PS5 port later this year.
If the indicators are all positive, and I believe they will be, they will show that for the modern Xbox, ‘‘winning’’ is about capturing the highest possible share of the global gaming wallet regardless of the silicon it runs on.
That’s the end game here I reckon.
Either way, Forza Horizon 6 is going to be massive for Xbox at a critical time and following an off-year for Call of Duty. We’ll be covering the full launch on Steam and Xbox next month here on the free Substack.
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