Our most requested estimates (and info on Alinea Analytics' margin of error)
Alinea Analytics estimates for Bloodborne, Spider-Man 2, and Expedition 33. And how our numbers stacked up against official publisher announcements for Cyberpunk, Red Dead, ARC Raiders, and others.
You asked, we answered!
Last week, we asked you about the Alinea estimates you wanted to see most. We had a load of requests, so let’s delve in before looking at how our estimates compare to recent publisher announcements.
Sales estimates for Bloodborne, Expedition 33 on Game Pass, and Spider-Man 2
We already covered the most-requested PlayStation games on Steam analysis. But we’re getting into the holiday spirit here at Alinea, so here are the other three most-requested estimates:
Bloodborne has sold 9.3M copies on PlayStation (its only platform). However, FromSoftware’s magnum opus (Bloodborne, facts) has reached 16M players overall thanks to its inclusion on PlayStation Plus, through which nearly 7M subscribers accessed Bloodborne. Our data shows that the launch of Elden Ring led to an influx of new Bloodborne players in the few months after Elden Ring’s explosive launch.
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 has sold 16M on PS5 and 700K+ on Steam. The Steam numbers have been softer than the first Spider-Man, due to diminishing returns for PlayStation games on Steam. Yet, the PS5 version of Spider-Man 2 still sells between 100K-200K copies a month. Spider-Man 2 is one of those evergreen titles that just keeps selling. It’s a go-to complement to new PS5 consoles, and it’ll have sold another 1M this quarter when all is said and done.
Expedition 33 on Game Pass (Xbox consoles and PC) has reached 3.3M players (poetic, I know). Expedition 33 has SOLD 5.5M+ copies overall, with about 3M on Steam, 2M on PS5, and around 500K on Xbox. Its inclusion on Game Pass has undoubtedly cannibalised copies sold on Xbox and PC. This extended to the hype from Expedition 33’s 11 nominations for The Game Awards. That week, around 100K copies were sold on Steam and 50K on PS5, but fewer than 5K were sold on Xbox. More people bought Expedition 33 on PS5 last week than accessed it for the first time on Game Pass…
A look at Alinea Analytics’ margin of error
As Alinea Insight subscribers, you know we publicly post our estimates, offer free trials (get yours here!), and publish our margin-of-error data.
Transparency is super important to us. While publishers rarely publish their official numbers, we’ve had a new batch since our last margin-of-error analysis.
Let’s see how we stacked up.
And we’ve brought receipts: screenshots from our platform (the yellow dot is the publisher numbers).
Cyberpunk 2077: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
CD Projekt announcement: 35M (link)
Alinea estimate: 35,070,508
Difference: 0.2%
Red Dead Redemption 2: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
TakeTwo announcement: 79M (link)
Alinea estimate: 71,302,557
Difference: -10.2%
ARC Raiders: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
Nexon announcement: 4M (link)
Alinea estimate: 3,995,393
Difference: -0.1%
Dragon’s Dogma II: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
Capcom announcement: 4M (link)
Alinea estimate: 4,230,570
Difference: 5.6%
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2: Was Alinea Analytics accurate?
Warhorse announcement: 4M (link)
Alinea estimate: 3,798,973
Difference: -5.2%
But these are just some recent announcements. We recently did a bigger analysis on Steam (with a bigger one on console to come).
Alinea Analytics PC margin of error
We did this accuracy test based on 754 publicly reported PC milestones. We had a 10% margin of error for all the games released this year:
The above underlines our core values of transparency and accuracy, but it also explains why our clients trust our tool – and why we’ve built up a reputation in the space so quickly.
With this in mind, though, we’ll never be complacent and coast on brand. Our goal is to ensure that our estimation framework remains consistent and reliable, regardless of external updates from publishers.
That’s why we never update our numbers directly in line with public announcements, why we show actuals next to our own numbers in our platform, and why we’re always transparent about any changes to our model.
It’s also why so many publishers – AAA and indie alike – are switching to Alinea for their console and PC market intelligence. It’s been a big year for us at Alinea, and we can’t wait for our next chapter.
Want to see what all the fuss is about for yourself? Get a free trial of our platform here.
Other insights, links, and cool stuff
It was another busy press week for Alinea. Our analysis of PlayStation games on Steam was picked up by our friends at IGN, GameSpot, Push Square, TweakTown, and Windows Central.
We recently updated our website! Have a look around, and let us know what you think.
Want to get your hands on our data for yourself? We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Just reach out here, or reply to this email, and we’ll set you up.
The last word
Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover.
[Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
the link to the Nexon source for arc raiders is not correct