Subnautica 2 passes 4M sold and $100M in revenue in under a week
Subnautica 2's early-access release has been a hit so far. We use Alinea Analytics Steam and Xbox estimates to dive into the game's success.
The first Subnautica found huge success in the survival genre with its smart addition of underwater exploration. Since then, Subnautica has reached iconic status in the survival space.
Its long-awaited direct sequel, Subnautica 2, was always going to be a success, with millions of wishlists locked in before its early-access release. And the early performance has been excellent.
Let’s dive into our estimates.
Subnautica 2 enjoys early-access success
Subnautica 2 arrived in early access on Steam and Xbox last week. It’s already sold 4.1M copies in its first week, generating $100M in revenue.
The vast majority of those copies were sold via Steam (4M), with Xbox selling under 100K. That said, plenty of Xbox players got their hands on Subnautica 2 thanks to Game Pass.
Across console, Windows, and cloud, 2.4M gamers have played Subnautica 2 via Game Pass. So the overall player number is well over 6M.
Wishlisters aren’t the holy grail for predicting launch sales
One assumption I hear quite a bit is that if a game gets millions of wishlists, most of those will convert at launch.
Obviously, Subnautica 2‘s wishlist numbers have been massive. It was the top Steam game by wishlists prior to launch, sitting at 5.5M Steam wishlists when it released.
It’s tempting to believe that most of those wishlisters would convert to buyers easily. But many gamers wishlist games on Steam to get notified about discounts at a later date. And the vast majority of Subnautica 2‘s week-one buyers were not players who had wishlisted the game.
To put a number on it, under 9% of Subnautica 2‘s total wishlisters have actually bought the game so far, as per our estimates. This kind of share is pretty typical for an anticipated game with a lot of wishlists – unless you’re Slay the Spire 2, that is.
Taking March 2026 in our wishlist conversion table as an example, just 9.02% of wishlisters from that month have converted to purchases:
We have this monthly wishlist conversion data for every Steam game, with columns for 30D after launch, 90D, 180D, and so on. If you’d like to see the wishlist conversion for any game, reach out for a free trial of our platform.
This takes nothing away from the fact that Subnautica 2 has been a smash hit. But it’s worth noting that wishlisters are a decent directional barometer for day-one sales, but they are not a 1:1 conversion signal. Far from it.
Subnautica 2 is 2026’s fastest-selling Steam game (for now)
Our estimates show that based on its performance so far (five days in), Subnautica 2 is Steam’s fastest-selling 2026 game so far.
In terms of copies sold five days in on Steam, Subnautica 2 (4M sold on Steam) is selling:
1.4x faster than Slay the Spire 2 (2.9M sold, five days in)
Almost 2x faster than Resident Evil Requiem (2.1M sold, five days in)
3x faster than Crimson Desert (1.3M sold, five days in)
But owing to differences in price, Resident Evil Requiem is the leader in terms of gross revenue with $120M five days in, versus $96M for Subnautica 2, $78M for Crimson Desert, and $58M for Slay the Spire 2. Regional pricing and a high share of Chinese players limited the revenue somewhat for Slay the Spire 2.
The Requiem comparison is a neat example of the early-access pricing thesis. Capcom got $120M up front. Unknown Worlds got 4M players locked into a five-year content runway, with DLC, expansions, and an eventual full-launch price uplift all still ahead.
How does Forza Horizon 6 fit into this list? Hit subscribe for free below to get that analysis in your inbox as soon as it’s ready.
Players are loving Subnautica 2 in early access
Subnautica 2 had a lot to live up to, and so far in early access it’s lived up to those lofty expectations. The positive review score currently sits at 91% across all markets on Steam.
China is dragging the average down a bit. Simplified Chinese reviews, which account for 7.1% of the total Subnautica 2 review pool, sit at 73% positive, as Chinese gamers are typically more negative in reviews.
As we covered a couple of weeks back, Steam reviews are one of the few feedback channels available to Mainland players, given the Great Firewall, so the channel skews adversarial by default.
Most of the negative Chinese reviews are about players not being able to defend themselves from aggressive fish due to a lack of weapons, with many reacting to level designer Artyom “Artie” O’Rielly’s comments on the Subnautica Discord. “We aren’t a killing game,” said Artie. “Go play Sons of the Forest or something if you want to kill.”
That comment has not landed well, and not just in China. There’s a lesson to be had in PR here – and I imagine there’ll be ways to defend against the fish when all is said and done (didn’t think I’d be typing that today…)
Lead game designer Anthony Gallegos told Eurogamer and other press that the team feels strongly about the non-violence position but is open to listening to feedback on player defence options. That’s the right tone to strike, and it’s also the kind of tension that early access exists to resolve.
Anyway, when we take Chinese out of the equation, the Subnautica 2 positive user review score jumps 2% to around 93%. Positive factors from our review sentiment analysis include the following:
Stunning visual design: Underwater environments are beautiful with impressive lighting, particle effects, and creature designs. Biomes are visually distinct and immersive. I can vouch for this one. This doesn’t feel early access at all.
The immersive deep-sea tension absolutely captures the thalassophobia (that’s a fear of deep water) and sense of isolation from the original. The sound design is excellent with unsettling creature noises and ambient effects, and the exploration into darker depths remains genuinely frightening.
Base-building mechanics are also improved with dynamic scaling of walls and rooms. Players can now build from materials in storage boxes, the snapping system is more forgiving, and building feels satisfying and less tedious.
Cooperative gameplay: Subnautica 2 marks the series’s first true co-op support with up to four players. Multiplayer is largely stable with minimal crashes, and exploring and surviving with friends significantly enhances the experience. Co-op is looking to be a major part of the game’s ongoing development.
Nice narrative setup: The story begins with intrigue and mystery, and progression feels natural in the early stages. It got me pretty hooked quickly, while it took me a while to get into the first two games.
The positivity is no surprise. I was making good use of my Game Pass subscription last night to bounce between Forza and Subnautica 2. And I must say, Subnautica 2 is one of the most polished early-access releases I’ve seen, and definitely one of the best Unreal Engine 5 launches so far. It’s awesome.
There are also some negatives, though. Our semantic analysis shows players are frustrated by a lack of content, optimisation issues, a mandatory EULA, and the absence of basic accessibility features like an FOV slider.
So what’s next?
The roadmap is saying all the right things
Subnautica 2 is smashing it and impressing players. The foundation is amazing. Now it all depends on how Unknown Worlds addresses the complaints and continues to flesh out the game.
The team has been upfront about the road ahead. The published roadmap promises a mix of focused improvements addressing systems and smaller features, hot fixes when needed, and larger expansions that will build out the world, biomes, creatures, resources, tools, vehicles, and the next chapter of the story.
The first update is focused on quality-of-life fixes, and the second is targeting co-op improvements based on player requests:
The team has also been explicit that community input will shape Early Access development through the in-game feedback tool and the Nolt suggestion board.
That’s a sensible posture given the visible community pressure around the violence question. Player feedback being able to upvote suggestions is the kind of mechanism that lets the team gauge actual demand rather than reacting to the loudest voices.
Of course, each major content drop will produce a Steam algorithm uplift, wishlist reactivation, fresh press coverage, and a DAU spike that resembles a launch in miniature.
For a $100M-in-five-days launch, the bigger commercial question is the next year. The original Subnautica became a survival genre cornerstone because Unknown Worlds shipped consistently across early access and beyond.
Subnautica 2‘s commercial ceiling will be defined by whether the team can repeat that discipline. I reckon they can.
Want to get your hands on our data for yourself – for free?
We’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies.
Send us a message here, or reply to this email, and we’ll set you up.
The last word
Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover.
[Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]